The Future is Federated

Today (July 6, 2023), Meta introduced their new “Threads” app, advertising it as a rival of Twitter. On Mastodon and elsewhere in the Fediverse, the rumors of this newest move have been causing a lot of ruckus and anxiety lately. Many people have understandably been worried about ideas like “Embrace, Extend, Extinguish” (EEE) – a devastatingly destructive business model that corporations like Meta have long been guilty of practicing.

But I think that anxiety is unfounded in this case.

I think… #TheFutureIsFederated.

The Fediverse is much stronger than most folks realize. And I think we’re seeing the “down-stream” effects from a combination of A.I. innovation plus corporate oligarchy. But the Fediverse itself is not going away.

Admittedly, I’ve been very leery of Meta’s actions (and rumored NDAs) recently, I won’t deny it. You can scroll through my feed and see my frustration and worries about what could happen. But reflecting upon Meta’s recent actions and the fundamental architecture of the fediverse, I now think those worries were unfounded.

The very architecture of the Fediverse is one that cannot be bought out or obliterated.

I know that especially for recent migrants to the Fediverse from other flailing platforms, this can be hard to believe or just to feel secure about, on an emotional level. Having only recently had the rug pulled out from under them, they don’t trust the floor beneath their feet. That’s understandable.

Yes, there will be change on Mastodon, and in the entire Fediverse. (Reminder: There is much more to the Fediverse than just Mastodon. The Fediverse is a collection of servers and instances, including Mastodon.)

Change is inevitable these days, regardless of whether or not Meta ever came out with Threads. We have had a HUGE influx of migrants here (from both Reddit and Twitter) and the “flavor & mood” of the platform has been bound to change from the original, in ways we cannot foresee in detail.

I get it– Change is scary. Change is uncomfortable. But change is always necessary, especially in the 21st Century.

But I’ve seen similar change before, and I think this is analogous enough to guarantee that the Fediverse (in one form or another) will not be destroyed or “extinguished.” The Fediverse is not a private company– it’s not even one single entity. Therein, I believe, will lie the its greatest strength.

What to know about Threads – Mastodon Blog

To explain…

I come from the publishing industry. I spent years as an editor, when five companies basically ruled the industry. Nothing made money unless they approved it.

Authors who wanted to print their own books could do that, but they would almost certainly never get to store shelves. Those “publishing houses” were called “Vanity Press” (and even today, they’re ALWAYS a scam). Traditional publishers (the “Big Five”) justifiably looked down on vanities, because the quality was always crap.

Then Print On Demand (POD) and online book sales came along. Amazon KDP made it possible for anyone to publish and sell books for almost no cost. Writers hired their own editors, and began to create– and SELL– quality self-published books. Some sales even rivaled traditional imprints.

(This is relevant. Stay with me…)

My old-school brain didn’t understand it at first. How could anyone make money by self publishing? Why would customers accept low-quality material?

But after hiring myself out as a freelance editor, I eventually saw how it worked, and I saw that the old ideas of how things are done no longer applied.

My thinking had a paradigm shift.

Online sales had changed the industry. POD meant that authors didn’t have to print 10K copies and pay huge storage fees for the 9,999 books they hadn’t sold right away. Readers didn’t have to see your book in a store on a shelf to buy it. And self-published books didn’t mean “unedited” anymore. (Although it still does sometimes.) Freelance editing now seemed like a valid income source for many.

The Ordinary Person had found a way to take ownership of their own product.

Yes, there are still huge traditional publishers, but none of them is capable of obliterating the self-publishing industry. Technology has made it possible for ordinary people to compete in the marketplace– without them.

Self-publishing is not a fad, it’s not going away, and is only expanding.

Another Paradigm Shift

Something similar has happened to my viewpoint after being in the Fediverse for a while now…

Coming from corporate social medias like Twitter and Facebook, it’s often hard to understand the power of the Ordinary Person here in the Fediverse. Anyone– and I mean ANYONE– can set up their own instance here. Non-tech-savvy admins have proudly announced they’ve done so. Accounts like @FediTips (https://mstdn.social/@feditips) give simple “how to” instructions.

You don’t need a huge corporate data center taking up the entire basement of a large office building. You don’t need a high-paid CCNA-certified Network Administrator to set up your own server and instance. You can block or federate with almost any other instance you wish.

I see Mastodon and other places in the Fediverse like self publishing – a form of “self-hosting.” Yes, some folks will still go for the corporate networks, some will not. Some will hang out in both.

But the “marketplace” of social media now includes sites controlled by The Ordinary Person, and I don’t see that going back (thanks to protocols like ActivityPub).

Elon Musk and Steve Huffman (Reddit) are like the Big Five publishing companies, which (early in the days of self-publishing) tried to buy out or push out the competition of small indie presses. Zuckerberg is that one publisher who saw the future and thought to make money from it instead, by offering publishing services to the Ordinary Person and embracing the new technology. (Although it’s very important to note that those early overtures to self publishers from the large traditional publishers were always variations on the Vanity Press scams.)

Zuckerberg took a long look at the situation, and also saw it: #TheFutureIsFederated.

He’s established that his new Threads platform will be based in the Fediverse.

Catching a Ride on The Gravy Train

To use another metaphor:

Zuckerberg is like a large corporate farmer, who bought a HUGE plot of farmland. Mastodon and the other smaller “family farms” that were already there will not have their crops stolen, or their land tilled by him. (Eugen Rochko, the founder of Mastodon, has said that Zuckerberg will not be able to send ads our way, or mine data that is not shared with them. And that’s where Zuckerberg makes his profit: from ad revenue and data mining. See top link for more on this.)

I think Zuckerberg has seen the metaphorical train at the station, and doesn’t want it to leave without him. He’s also seen how humans have flocked away when company owners have become unstable or tried to exert too much control. Mostly, he’s seen the explosive growth of Mastodon’s numbers and is chasing after that like a dog chasing after a mouth-watering chew toy. He knows Elon’s company is failing, Reddit is bleeding out accounts. He’s looked at the numbers and sees where he wants to be.

He’s following the dollar signs.
https://mastodon.social/@mastodonusercount

I also think he is advertising his Threads app as a version of Mastodon, promoting the connectivity to the Fediverse, the same way he’s also promoting it as a rival version of Twitter. He’s marketing himself to both sides of the street, to the two strongest competitors to Twitter.

Additionally, Meta has recently stated that their Threads app is not quite up and running with ActivityPub just yet. And I think that’s intentional. He’s jumping in the game while people are still running away from Twitter and Reddit. He sees people looking for options, and (like a savvy businessman) he is grabbing his opportunities when and where he can find them.

Adam Mosseri says Meta’s Threads app won’t have ActivityPub support at launch | TechCrunch

Another analogy:

Zuckerberg is looking for a way to ride that (previously mentioned) train at that metaphorical station, by latching on somehow to the Fediverse. He’s hoping to hook his train train cars on the same engine (microblogging), but not let folks board via the other cars (Mastodon etc). But he’s selling the full train experience– Fediverse dining cars and all– to his riders.

He’s undoubtedly also hoping to (eventually) set up his own dining cars, sleeping cars, etc and coax people in the non-Threads Fediverse to hang out there. He knows he can’t bring his data mining and advertising buddies to the Fediverse, but he’s hoping to coax us into bringing our data to them.

I’ve already come across articles which seem to think that Meta created the Fediverse, so be sure to combat that huge piece of misinformation whenever possible. The Fediverse was her long before Zuckerberg discovered it. He is the Columbus of the internet, laying claim to “discovering” a place that was populated by millions before he came along. Don’t let that misconception go unchallenged.